Look: you wager the same $100 every game, assuming the odds are static. Reality? Odds swing like a pendulum, and a flat stake can drown you fast.

Enter Proportional Unit Sizing

Here is the deal: instead of a fixed dollar amount, you calculate each bet as a fraction of your current bankroll — say 1% or 2% — and adjust after every win or loss.

Flat vs. Proportional: The Numbers Speak

Imagine a $10,000 bankroll. Flat $200 bets = 2% each time. Lose five straight, you’re down 10%, still $9,000. Proportional 2% after each loss shrinks the next bet to $176, then $162, preserving capital.

NBA Specifics: Pace and Volatility

NBA games explode with runs, injuries, back-to-back fatigue. A 5-point swing can flip a spread. Proportional units let you ride those waves without capsizing.

How to Calculate Your Unit

Step one: decide your risk tolerance — most pros sit at 1.5% to 3% per bet. Step two: multiply that percentage by your bankroll. Step three: round to the nearest betting increment.

Adjusting for Edge

And here is why you shouldn’t ignore your edge. If your model predicts a 55% win rate on a -110 line, bump the unit to 2.5% for extra leverage. If confidence wanes, drop to 1%.

Bankroll Management in Practice

Every night, tally your wins, losses, and any cash-out. Re-compute the unit before the next slate. The math is simple, the discipline is brutal.

Common Pitfalls

Never, ever, reset the unit to the original amount after a winning streak. That’s the gambler’s fallacy in neon. Also, avoid chasing losses with oversized bets; proportional sizing already caps that urge.

Actionable Takeaway

Start today: take your current bankroll, apply a 2% rule, and stick to it for the next 15 NBA games. Watch the variance shrink, and let the edge do the work.